Influenza-associated excess mortality from monthly total mortality data for Germany from 1947 to 2000.
Identifieur interne : 000533 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000532; suivant : 000534Influenza-associated excess mortality from monthly total mortality data for Germany from 1947 to 2000.
Auteurs : H. Uphoff [Allemagne] ; N I StilianakisSource :
- Methods of information in medicine [ 0026-1270 ] ; 2004.
Descripteurs français
- KwdFr :
- MESH :
- mortalité : Grippe humaine.
- tendances : Mortalité.
- épidémiologie : Allemagne.
- Humains.
- Wicri :
- geographic : Allemagne.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- MESH :
- geographic , epidemiology : Germany.
- mortality : Influenza, Human.
- trends : Mortality.
- Humans.
Abstract
OBJECTIVES
Death attributable to influenza is noted under various causes in the mortality statistics. Therefore, excess of total mortality is frequently used for the estimation of the entire impact of influenza on mortality. Various models for the estimation of the expected mortality are in use but are rather complex which hampers their routine use. A simple and hence transparent model was developed and applied to the total mortality in Germany from 1947 to 2000.
METHODS
The method is based on the pattern of the distribution of the mortality over the months. Additional trends over the time could be included with simple factors. In this manner the model was applicable over the total observation period.
RESULTS
The fit for the months where influenza was not epidemic was good and comparable to other models (R2 = 0.91). The estimated excess mortality is plausible and congruent with estimates based on other models.
CONCLUSION
This method is applicable to long time series of any duration and obvious trends could be considered by simple factors in a readily identifiable and plausible way. Possible reductions in precision due to the consideration of a given monthly distribution pattern of the annual mortality seem tolerable with respect to the goodness of fit of the model. The estimation includes the pandemics of 1957/58 and 1968 to 1970.
PubMed: 15702207
Affiliations:
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Le document en format XML
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Uphoff</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Centre for Health Protection, State of Hesse, Germany. h.uphoff@suah-ldk.hessen.de</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Allemagne</country><wicri:regionArea>Centre for Health Protection, State of Hesse</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>State of Hesse</wicri:noRegion><wicri:noRegion>State of Hesse</wicri:noRegion><wicri:noRegion>State of Hesse</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Stilianakis, N I" sort="Stilianakis, N I" uniqKey="Stilianakis N" first="N I" last="Stilianakis">N I Stilianakis</name></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PubMed</idno><date when="2004">2004</date><idno type="RBID">pubmed:15702207</idno><idno type="pmid">15702207</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Corpus">000522</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Main" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PubMed">000522</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Curation">000522</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Main" wicri:step="Curation">000522</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Exploration">000522</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en">Influenza-associated excess mortality from monthly total mortality data for Germany from 1947 to 2000.</title><author><name sortKey="Uphoff, H" sort="Uphoff, H" uniqKey="Uphoff H" first="H" last="Uphoff">H. Uphoff</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Centre for Health Protection, State of Hesse, Germany. h.uphoff@suah-ldk.hessen.de</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Allemagne</country><wicri:regionArea>Centre for Health Protection, State of Hesse</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>State of Hesse</wicri:noRegion><wicri:noRegion>State of Hesse</wicri:noRegion><wicri:noRegion>State of Hesse</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Stilianakis, N I" sort="Stilianakis, N I" uniqKey="Stilianakis N" first="N I" last="Stilianakis">N I Stilianakis</name></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Methods of information in medicine</title><idno type="ISSN">0026-1270</idno><imprint><date when="2004" type="published">2004</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Germany (epidemiology)</term><term>Humans (MeSH)</term><term>Influenza, Human (mortality)</term><term>Mortality (trends)</term></keywords><keywords scheme="KwdFr" xml:lang="fr"><term>Allemagne (épidémiologie)</term><term>Grippe humaine (mortalité)</term><term>Humains (MeSH)</term><term>Mortalité (tendances)</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" type="geographic" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Germany</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="mortality" xml:lang="en"><term>Influenza, Human</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="mortalité" xml:lang="fr"><term>Grippe humaine</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="tendances" xml:lang="fr"><term>Mortalité</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="trends" xml:lang="en"><term>Mortality</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="épidémiologie" xml:lang="fr"><term>Allemagne</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="en"><term>Humans</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="fr"><term>Humains</term></keywords><keywords scheme="Wicri" type="geographic" xml:lang="fr"><term>Allemagne</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>OBJECTIVES</b></p><p>Death attributable to influenza is noted under various causes in the mortality statistics. Therefore, excess of total mortality is frequently used for the estimation of the entire impact of influenza on mortality. Various models for the estimation of the expected mortality are in use but are rather complex which hampers their routine use. A simple and hence transparent model was developed and applied to the total mortality in Germany from 1947 to 2000.</p></div><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>METHODS</b></p><p>The method is based on the pattern of the distribution of the mortality over the months. Additional trends over the time could be included with simple factors. In this manner the model was applicable over the total observation period.</p></div><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>RESULTS</b></p><p>The fit for the months where influenza was not epidemic was good and comparable to other models (R2 = 0.91). The estimated excess mortality is plausible and congruent with estimates based on other models.</p></div><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>CONCLUSION</b></p><p>This method is applicable to long time series of any duration and obvious trends could be considered by simple factors in a readily identifiable and plausible way. Possible reductions in precision due to the consideration of a given monthly distribution pattern of the annual mortality seem tolerable with respect to the goodness of fit of the model. The estimation includes the pandemics of 1957/58 and 1968 to 1970.</p></div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="MEDLINE" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">15702207</PMID><DateCompleted><Year>2005</Year><Month>03</Month><Day>17</Day></DateCompleted><DateRevised><Year>2017</Year><Month>04</Month><Day>10</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Print"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Print">0026-1270</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Print"><Volume>43</Volume><Issue>5</Issue><PubDate><Year>2004</Year></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>Methods of information in medicine</Title><ISOAbbreviation>Methods Inf Med</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>Influenza-associated excess mortality from monthly total mortality data for Germany from 1947 to 2000.</ArticleTitle><Pagination><MedlinePgn>486-92</MedlinePgn></Pagination><Abstract><AbstractText Label="OBJECTIVES" NlmCategory="OBJECTIVE">Death attributable to influenza is noted under various causes in the mortality statistics. Therefore, excess of total mortality is frequently used for the estimation of the entire impact of influenza on mortality. Various models for the estimation of the expected mortality are in use but are rather complex which hampers their routine use. A simple and hence transparent model was developed and applied to the total mortality in Germany from 1947 to 2000.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="METHODS" NlmCategory="METHODS">The method is based on the pattern of the distribution of the mortality over the months. Additional trends over the time could be included with simple factors. In this manner the model was applicable over the total observation period.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="RESULTS" NlmCategory="RESULTS">The fit for the months where influenza was not epidemic was good and comparable to other models (R2 = 0.91). The estimated excess mortality is plausible and congruent with estimates based on other models.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="CONCLUSION" NlmCategory="CONCLUSIONS">This method is applicable to long time series of any duration and obvious trends could be considered by simple factors in a readily identifiable and plausible way. Possible reductions in precision due to the consideration of a given monthly distribution pattern of the annual mortality seem tolerable with respect to the goodness of fit of the model. The estimation includes the pandemics of 1957/58 and 1968 to 1970.</AbstractText></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Uphoff</LastName><ForeName>H</ForeName><Initials>H</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Centre for Health Protection, State of Hesse, Germany. h.uphoff@suah-ldk.hessen.de</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Stilianakis</LastName><ForeName>N I</ForeName><Initials>NI</Initials></Author></AuthorList><Language>eng</Language><PublicationTypeList><PublicationType UI="D016428">Journal Article</PublicationType></PublicationTypeList></Article><MedlineJournalInfo><Country>Germany</Country><MedlineTA>Methods Inf Med</MedlineTA><NlmUniqueID>0210453</NlmUniqueID><ISSNLinking>0026-1270</ISSNLinking></MedlineJournalInfo><CitationSubset>IM</CitationSubset><MeshHeadingList><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D005858" MajorTopicYN="N" Type="Geographic">Germany</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000453" MajorTopicYN="N">epidemiology</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D006801" MajorTopicYN="N">Humans</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D007251" MajorTopicYN="N">Influenza, Human</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000401" MajorTopicYN="Y">mortality</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D009026" MajorTopicYN="N">Mortality</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000639" MajorTopicYN="N">trends</QualifierName></MeshHeading></MeshHeadingList></MedlineCitation><PubmedData><History><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="pubmed"><Year>2005</Year><Month>2</Month><Day>11</Day><Hour>9</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="medline"><Year>2005</Year><Month>3</Month><Day>18</Day><Hour>9</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="entrez"><Year>2005</Year><Month>2</Month><Day>11</Day><Hour>9</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate></History><PublicationStatus>ppublish</PublicationStatus><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">15702207</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="pii">04050486</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></PubmedData></pubmed><affiliations><list><country><li>Allemagne</li></country></list><tree><noCountry><name sortKey="Stilianakis, N I" sort="Stilianakis, N I" uniqKey="Stilianakis N" first="N I" last="Stilianakis">N I Stilianakis</name></noCountry><country name="Allemagne"><noRegion><name sortKey="Uphoff, H" sort="Uphoff, H" uniqKey="Uphoff H" first="H" last="Uphoff">H. 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